Tuesday, July 13, 2010

First half crime stats

The Records Unit has finished processing June’s reports, and the Information Technology Unit has compiled the crime stats, so here is where we stand, half way through 2010 compared to the same period last year.


As you can see, only two of the Part 1 crimes are up—auto theft and aggravated assault.  The decline in burglary is particularly large.  Although there is a slight increase (13 offenses) in the violent crime category, it is overwhelmed by the significant decrease (-302 offenses) in the property crimes, so overall crime is down 5.6%.  Considering the growth in the population during the past year or around 3,500 people, the crime rate is down 6.9% so far.

It’s always best to consider crime trends in light of the longer term, though, so you might want to look at the graphs contained  in this post from earlier this year when the 2009 crime statistics were released.  Slide number 11 in the embedded presentation would be the most meaningful.

Apart from the overall decline in crime, we are also having a banner year for crime clearance.  Half way through 2010, the clearance rate stands at 32.5%, which is incredible.  Good work all around!


LoupGarou said...

Hey chief, is there a breakdown by month? It's always good to see crime rates down, but I wonder if it's only weather related. It was a rather cold winter and I'm wondering if the crimes were lower during those months because of the laziness of the criminals and not wanting to go out because it was too cold. Also, good to see how they are doing in the warmer months too.

Tom Casady said...


As you wish, 2009 compared to 2010, by month (cumulative):

Jan -8.1
Feb -5.8
Mar -5.6
Apr -2.4
May -5.8
Jun -5.6

And here are the raw number differences by month (non-cumulative)

Jan -63
Feb -20
Mar -47
Apr +54
May -170
Jun -43

Cash said...

Just to clarify when you go from 8.1 in Jan to 5.8 in Feb is that essentially saying crime was up for Feb individually?

Also, I've been curious where do you get your precise numbers for the population on an annual basis?

Finally, there are some more flamingos nesting in our neigborhood. These are about a half a block SW of where the last ones were stolen (a stone's throw from my house). Hopefully they do not befall a similar fate. Was the previous case resolved?

Former Deputy D said...

The numbers speak for themselves. Awesome Job in presenting this information, I bet you enjoyed putting it together as much as we as Lincoln residents did in seeing it. It just goes to show you that Lincoln can be the place of "The Good Life" if you lock your doors and keep "Swag" out of site along with a Police Force that's out there doing their job.

Anonymous said...

This is just the obligatory mention that there can be anything from a small to a huge disparity between the reported rates and the actual rates of almost any crime type, with the murder rate being the most accurate, followed closely by business robbery and auto theft (because you need a police report to submit an insurance claim). If a victim doesn't want contact with the police, because they have warrants and other such reasons, they are much less likely to report the crime. Always keep these varying and nebulous rate disparities in mind whenever looking at crime rates.

Anonymous said...

Chief, if (unlike the UCR) you break apart business and non-business robberies, what do the rates (and rate changes) look like for those two crime types, for this same period?

Tom Casady said...


No, but it was down less precipitously in February, compared to January. We had 63 fewer Part 1 offenses in January 2010 than in January 2009; we had 20 fewer in February.

I get my current population data from the United States Census Bureau biennial population estimates. Since these are only released every other year and are a for the year preceding the release, you have to do a little upwards adjustment, for which I have been using the average % increase over the decade. Looks like a new estimate for Lincoln's population was just released a couple weeks ago, so I need to refresh. According the the Census Bureau, or estimated population on July 1, 2009 was 254,001. If we grew at the average rate of the past 9 years (1.28% per year) our population right now should be 257,252.

I noticed the pink flamingos in the neighborhood. I think the ones that flew the coop previously are still missing. Maybe they've come back to roost.


Robberies of businesses from January 1 through June 30, -58%:

2009 26
2010 11

Robberies not of businesses from January 1 through June 30, +10%:

2009 58
2010 64

Anonymous said...

Are you and the Mayor ready for the crime stats and clearance rates to balloon after Sept. 1st, when officers are busy working parking calls and picking up the other PSO duties. It will be interesting to watch.

Anonymous said...

How about you and the mayor do the parking calls? Maybe he can fit it in with all the other jobs he's going to volunteer for.

Anonymous said...

Good evening Chief. Is that a new profile picture? You look like you have lost some weight or something.

Tom Casady said...


That mustache was born in late 1975. It was older than 67 Lincoln police officers.