Seasonal crime

Regular readers of the Chief’s Corner are aware that I fancy myself something of a crime analyst. I take a lot of grief (mostly good natured, I think) for my tendency to collect, assess, and analyze data. The following crime problem landed in my inbox yesterday morning, from a Lincoln citizen victimized by several recent offenses:

“I don't know if this is a serious enough thing to get the police department in on, but 2 of my pumpkins where stolen last night, and I found them smashed on the street not far from my house, this is 3 missing pumpkins off my front porch within 2 weeks….I don't really know what I can do about it…I didn't know if someone had any suggestions on what I could do to have them stop stealing my pumpkins, can I not leave them on my front porch? Thank you for your time.”

My first order of business was to examine the data for any apparent trends or patterns. To do so, I extracted two years of vandalism and theft cases containing the key word “pumpkin.” In 2007 and 2008, pumpkins figured in 126 crimes.: 13 thefts, 112 vandalisms, and one unlawful detonation of fireworks. There was a very strong seasonal pattern to these misdeeds:

It is probably too early to draw any conclusions about the trend in 2009, but further exploration of the 2007-08 data set also revealed a rather prominent geographic pattern. As you can see for the following map, it appears that pumpkins near the southern and eastern portions of Lincoln were at considerably more risk than those in other areas of the city during this two year period.


The analysis also revealed that in many cases, pumpkins were used as projectiles in other types of vandalism. There were 77 mailboxes damaged by pumpkins, and 27 motor vehicles. The total loss and damage was $13,914.

Based on this analysis, I recommend precautions for pumpkin owners during the months of October and November, and especially for those owners whose pumpkins are located in the southeast portions of Lincoln. Such precautions might include removing pumpkins from porches and stoops during the hours of darkness, to temporary storage in a secure area such as a garage or foyer. I realize this is somewhat labor-intensive, but it appears to be the most practical means of preventing the theft or destruction of large orange gourds.

Wildcard queries

Late last week, the Omega Group, makers of the CrimeView suite of products we use, announced a small addition to their web-based mapping product, CrimeView Dashboard: Wildcard Query.  This new feature allows users to add an ad hoc search with a wildcard within any field in the data, even one composed of unstructured text.  Let's say, for instance, that for some inexplicable reason you wanted to map the location of crimes committed with pumpkins.  Our crime data has fields for the mechanism of vandalism, and for weapons and projectiles, but "pumpkin" is not one of the values in the entry table.  The data does, however, include a 60 character comments field that summarizes the crime, and searching within that field for the term "pumpkin" would produce the map in a jiffy.

This isn't entirely new to LPD, as our records management system has always had this capability, but still, it's pretty nice if you want to do something like quickly map the location of the car/bicycle traffic crashes this year (78), or make a map of the home addresses of the registered sex offenders named "Bill" (4).

Exploring the function of the new feature, I ran a query for iCrimes this year, a topic I blogged about years ago, and one that still surfaces in the news from time to time.

Apple products of the iP* variety have figured in 471 crimes in Lincoln thus far in 2012.  The larcenies and burglaries are pretty obvious, and you can figure out scenarios pretty easily for the frauds, robberies, and auto thefts.  How, though, would an iPhone figure into a child abuse case?

Pumpkins and scarecrows

A couple blocks away from my home, an overnight crime was reported that might have escaped my attention, were it not for the automated crime alert I received in my inbox this morning from crimemapping.com (click to enlarge):

I'm not quite sure how many people have signed up for alerts, but I'm pretty sure I was one of the first. I am subscribed to the area within a half mile of my home. It is an awfully convenient way to keep informed about what's going on in your own back yard--even if you're the police chief.

Pumpkin smashing, of course, is a seasonal crime that occurs when homeowners leave the ammunition laying around on their front porch. Here's another somewhat similar crime from last weekend:

I think I have a good suspect on that one.

Protect your pumpkin

No, this isn't a warning about the controversy du jour regarding helmet-to-helmet hits in college and professional football.  Rather, it is my annual warning about the upswing in gourd-related offenses.  It's already started, and the mailboxes, rear view mirrors and car windows are my chief concern.  If you leave the ammo out on your front stoop, you shouldn't be entirely surprised when the vandals take advantage of it.  But the $50 destruction of your mailbox by a pumpkin tossed from a passing car, or a couple hundred for your rear windshield is another matter.  That's a significant crime. 

The chances of catching a pumpkin flinging Grand Am are slim.  The chances that the juvenile offenders will suffer an appropriate consequence and that the victims will be made whole is even slimmer.  Thus, prevention is the key.  The formula is pretty simple.  Protect your pumpkins.  Not so much from theft, but from use to destroy your neighbor's property.  Pull them inside off the steps for the next few nights as you are double checking your garage door.  While your at it, move your daughter's car from the street into the driveway.  Yes, I know you'll have to move it again so you can get out to go to work in the morning, but please indulge me for just a few days.  You'll be glad you did.

Vindicated

Last week, my lovely wife was hinting around about putting up some outdoor Christmas decorations. Our unadorned home is, well, standing out on the block somewhat. My position has been that those decorations you put up on a beautiful fall weekend, you'll have to take down on a bitter Saturday in January, so I have always resisted. Occasionally, especially when the kids were still at home, I would relent with a minimalist scheme intended to reduce my labor to the bare minimum needed in order to maintain domestic tranquility.

There is, however, another justification for my curmudgeonly refusal to participate in the garish commercialization of Christmas. Just as those pumpkins on the porch are nothing more than ammunition for vandals, those Christmas decorations are tempting targets for thieves. This morning in my inbox was this Crime Alert from crimemapping.com:

There you have it, boatloads of expensive décor swiped from lawns right in my own neighborhood. Yet another case-in-point I can pull out to explain to Tonja why I'm watching football tomorrow instead of stringing lights and inflating snowmen. I am vindicated.

Everyone in Lincoln should subscribe to Crime Alerts from crimemapping.com. For that matter, everyone in any jurisdiction that provides its data to the Omega Group for crimemapping.com should do so. Here in Nebraska, that's Lincoln Police, Omaha Police, Lancaster County Sheriff, and Grand Island Police. I'm signed up for my daughter's address in Omaha, my son's in Lincoln, and my own. It's free, easy and lets me know in a day when a crime I'm interested in has been reported nearby.