A hot topic recently on some of the research-oriented web forums I monitor has been an article published this month in Mother Jones. Author Kevin Drum posits a theory that the meteoric rise of violent crime in the United States in the 1970s and 1980s, as well as the precipitous fall in the 1990s and 2000s is the result of the effects of rising and falling levels of environmental lead.
Environmental lead, in turn, tracks the growing use of leaded gasoline in internal combustion engines, and the 1970s switchover to unleaded fuels. The bell-shaped curves of lead and crime look like mirror images, lagged by about 20 years. Could this indicate that a generation of children exposed to high levels of lead was more likely to produce individuals with violent propensities? And could the unexpected decline in violence in recent decades simply be the result of getting the lead out thirty years ago?
It is an intriguing thought, but as seasoned readers of my blog know, correlation does not necessarily mean causation. The author is a journalist, not a scientist, and Mother Jones isn't exactly a peer-reviewed professional journal. Nonetheless, the article was thought provoking, and might even stimulate more rigorous examination of the possible link.
Friday, January 25, 2013
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9 comments:
I have not done any research past the anecdotal level, but there was a buzz in the psychiatric world a number of years ago about the increased levels of lithium in the groundwater in Texas (specifically the Dallas-Fort Worth area, IIRC). Lithium is one of the most frequently prescribed medications for a number of mental illnesses, and supposedly the natural intake of lithium through groundwater supplies could be correlated to less need for medical intervention in depression and manic depressive diagnoses.
Herb,
Very interesting
I'm not trying to turn this into a gun debate, but I can't resist mentioning the parallel that presently exists as Obama, Feinstein, Biden, and others try a different method to "get the lead out" in order to reduce violences.
Director,
I very seldom agree with the radical environmental groups but they were absolutely correct in calling for a ban on leaded motor fuels. Some archaeologists link high LEAD levels in pottery glazes to health problems among the UPPER classes in the Roman empire. The colorful pigments that only more affluent citizens could afford often contained dangerous levels of LEAD.
Gun Nut
This post reminded me of a hypothesis I read about in a book entitled Freakanomics. It illustrated the correlation between the legalization of abortion and the subsequent decline in crime. Also interesting food for thought. Synopsis here: http://www.freakonomics.com/2005/05/15/abortion-and-crime-who-should-you-believe/
Director,
Speaking of criminal elements, I don't suppose that drugs and/or drug cash were involved in this incident, were they? I bet they said those hookahs were just fer smokin' tobaccy.
I agree that correlation does not necessarily mean causation. I could easily make the correlation that the rise in violent crime in the 70's and 80's is a result of eliminating the record album (disc) as the primary source of listening entertainment and replacing records with 8 tracks (1965-1983) and cassettes. And the fall in the 1990's is directly related to again placing music medium on a disc in the form of CD's.
Everyone knows that the drop in crime is due to the effective demise of the cathode-ray tube and the replacement of said tubes by flat-panel displays. The previous spike in crime was due to TVs going from the vacuum tube chassis design to solid-state construction. Crime is caused by vacuum tubes, obviously.
I wonder if I could have some idiot bureaucrat give me a grant, doling out taxpayer money to do a "study" on that cockamamie theory.
1:15,
Props for using "cockamamie" in a sentence. I've always wondered how to spell that. I'm on the National Institute of Justices's Scientific Review Panel, which advises the Federal government on research needs in criminal justice, and reviews grant solicitations and proposals. Looking forward to reviewing your application! ;-)
Ringo,
Alas....
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