Friday, November 26, 2010
Peaks in summer
A local member of the news media was aiming to do a story about the uptick in domestic violence that accompanies the holiday season. It is a topic I’ve blogged about before. The assumption underlying this reporter's story idea is a myth. Contrary to popular belief, domestic violence (like most crime) actually peaks during the middle of summer. Here’s the monthly breakdown on 15,134 domestic assaults in Lincoln over the past decade:
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16 comments:
It's intersting that in the summer/ warmer months the assualts rose with the temperature. I wonder how the curve looks in a place like Alaska or Maine where it is cooler all year round?
Doesn't all types of crime increase in the summer? I seem to recall you posting on robberies/burglaries being more common in warmer weather - that cold weather slows things down a bit.
Doesn't all crime go up in the summer? I seem to recall you blogging on that with regards to the rash a burglaries a winter or two ago . . .
Cozy,
Yes.
You don't assault family members around Christmas time, you might not get many presents.
It's hard for me to imagine that a local reporter doesn't read your blog, Chief. I thought this was where about half their stories come from in the first place. Must have been a newbie.
Chief,
Please, name that "reporter". I bet the ink on their journalism degree is still wet.
You don't get much turkey if you are in jail at Thanksgiving.
I always knew domestic violence isn't any worse around the Holidays but to some of us even as police officer's, it amazes us. I remember several years ago taking a guy to jail on a Christmas day donestic assault. I remember it well and I am lucky I can remember what happened to me yesterday.
It always amazed me when I started LPD numerous years ago that Thanksgiving night was a very big bar night. I kept thinking to myself, "why aren't these people home with their families?" I don't think that I grew up too sheltered but I still think that Holidays are to be home with family. Unless you have to work like I had to for so many years.
I thought I heard once that domestic violence also increases if the Huskers lose? For wives everywhere I hope they beat, err win against Colorado today! :-)
It's dangerous to confuse correlation with causation. I had a textbook last year point out that a graph detailing the incidence of rape over a 12-month period looks exactly the same as a graph portraying ice cream consumption-- and that in some cases, inferring causation between two statistics is a silly as claiming ice cream causes rape.
In comment to :November 26, 2010 12:06 PM
Sadly, alcohol becomes the focal point for many people. Thanksgiving was a very special one this year. My stepson got a DWI. His first, so help may be on the way! So after stuffing the bird, I became a drunk driver. Let me word this a bit better, so Steve will not get on me. I was driving a drunk (son) home from detox. So in that way I was a Driver of a drunk. That is much better put. It became clear to me, at that early morning hour how important alcohol can be to any of us. It is not luck of the draw when alcohol is involved in family fights. Their are no warning lables on alcohol. If containers had them they would say:
Warning: alcohol may cause loss of license, family, friends, money, cognitve thinking, motor skills, may also cause high debt from court costs, insurance rates, alcohol may also cause violent aggression in some people. People with a spouse should think first prior to getting married. Because sometimes you might end up loving "something" more than "someone"
Chief,
Do you have a similar bar or line chart showing the average annual trend for larceny from auto, from month to month? That seems to peak both when Spring warms up (windows down, doors unlocked, trailhead parking, etc), and when the Thanksgiving-Christmas-New Year shopping season hits.
If you are stuck in the same place with someone, perhaps you are more likely to make amends to get along? No dramatic chases out of the house during a blizzard, I assume.
Domestic violence during the holidays probably comes under the same category as weirdness on nights when the moon is full. There is not an increase in the number of incidents, but the weirdness meter is often pegged.
Here's another chart-by-month I'd like to see: Vehicles stolen, while left unlocked, with the keys in the ignition, and the engine running. How dim do you have to be to just give away your car like that?
Wishing you lived in an ideal world, where no one stole anything, we all had good luck all the time, all children were above average, and every sink had a golden third faucet that dispensed Guinness Stout doesn't make it so. I think it was Ben Franklin who said something to the effect that if you don't accept reality, then she'll make you feel her (no, he wasn't a TSA screener). You can refuse to accept the reality that a fist is coming your way, but you're still going to get a split lip.
Maybe not a 'myth' exactly... I just checked and in our agency (who shall remain nameless :), our DV incidents start to rise in December and peak in January. A dramtic drop is seen in February rising to a second slightly lower peak in May. Then trends downward again until December. I wonder which trend is the most common... and what makes it different?
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