Friday, July 1, 2016

Still appears to be working

Here's an update to the police department's strategy to deal with chronic repeat suspended drivers by impounding more of their cars. We now have a fourth month of data, that the decline in suspended drivers compared to overall traffic tickets continues. The 218 suspended driving tickets in June represent 2.95% of the total tickets, which is the lowest month since the time-series comparison period starts in January, 2013. Each of the four months since the policy change has been the lowest month.

Now, a little theory: crackdown strategies like this are usually based on the belief that violators will be deterred. The deterrence can be specific (the offender ticketed is deterred from continuing to violate the law) or general (other suspended drivers, learning of the crackdown, will be less likely to drive and/or drive less frequently). Crackdowns are generally announced with considerable fanfare, in order to increase general deterrence.

There is a considerable body of research demonstrating that the deterrent impact of crackdowns usually decays rapidly over time. Interest fades, publicity lags, things rebound more or less to the same condition as before the crackdown. It will be very interesting to see if that occurs with the police impound strategy. It certainly hasn't yet, despite the fact that there has really been little publicity about the strategy since the initial blast of news stories back in February.

I think there is a good chance that the effect of this strategy may be quite sticky compared to other crackdowns, because this one is not just based on the deterrent effect. It has an additional component: removing the instrumentality of the crime--the car. Impounding the car for 30 days makes it more difficult for the suspended driver to continue to drive. The time and effort necessary for finding another vehicles to drive is significant, and that alone should impact the likelihood the driver gets back behind the wheel, as well as how quickly he or she does so.

9 comments:

ARRRRG!!!! said...

Yup, my ship's in drydock. Thought I could get away with it but they got me for SWS (sailing while suspended). Now I have to use my friend's boat for 30 days.

Anonymous said...

Whatever works! Maybe setting up one of the big car crushers would help!

Steve said...

Glad to hear the crackdown is having an impact, and I hope it continues (both the crackdown and the impact). I only wish we had enough police officers to crack down on lots of other things that happen routinely with impunity. This would include all kinds of traffic and parking violations, littering, noise violations, and dozens of other things that are either dangerous or have an effect on the peacefulness and happiness of citizens.

Anonymous said...



Steve--I don't think there are enough police anywhere to handle all of that. Used to be you moved to the country or a small town to get away from it all. Doesn't seem to work any more, tho. Some thingw we just have to live with, I'm afraid.Polite society seems to have gone the way of dial phones and tv antennas.

Anonymous said...

What would hurt even more is the seizure and auction of the vehicle - even those that are leased or have a lien on them. Proceeds from the auction could go to the public schools like fines do (in this state). This would eliminate the use of civil forfeiture as a cash grab by local/county/state governments - which was the reason for that shining gem in the Nebraska state constitution anyway. Recent legislation has also happily made it even harder for those who like using CF to boost their budget.

This would require legislation, of course, and such legislation would almost certainly be fought all the way to the USSC, and the fight would come from banks and leasing companies with armies of top-notch attorneys on staff.

Anonymous said...

Steve, the items you listed are bottom of the barrel items and low priority. Lincoln has needed more cops the past 22 years that I have worked here.
Ain't gonna happen. Politicians can make it seem like there is more by manipulating numbers but when it comes right down to it, there's not.
The only thing that the city could do to hire several more officers is to raise taxes. Again, that ain't gonna happen.
Get use to the services the way they are which are pretty good compared to other cities however the city is starting to see more problems and as it grows. And as the city grows, the problems grow. It's a catch up game.

Anonymous said...

Look up B6-062349. That vanity plate (on the at-fault vehicle) is a bit ironic, don't you think?

Tom Casady said...

11:13,

Maybe should have followed license plate's advice?

Anonymous said...

Take a sniff of B6-064061. It has the faint but distinctive odor of clumsy insurance fraud, but what do I know...